Uncertainty surrounding future projections and a lack of contextual information for strategic planning are perceived as major barriers by businesses to taking adaptive action. Therefore, it is important for research assessing the impacts and adaptation options associated with climate change to incorporate information associated with the physical, social, economic, and policy drivers that will affect the value chain. With these drivers in mind, four storylines were developed for climate scenario generation. These storylines were used in the case studies and were tailored to suit the individual needs of each value chain.
Storyline 1: Adaptation without Global Mitigation
- World’s major greenhouse gas producers fail to make significant emissions reductions.
- Australia does not advance its own mitigation policies much further than it has already.
- Some effort is devoted to coping with the effects of climate change, though not so much that it might weaken our economy relative to other countries.
Storyline 2: Late Wake-up Call
- More significant mitigation and adaptation measures are put in place over the next 15 years with increasing public acceptance of the need to change.
- Actions become more expensive, and responses are less coordinated and less well planned than they might otherwise be.
Storyline 3: Global Fix with Reactive Australia
- The world’s major greenhouse gas producers tackle mitigation relatively early and in a serious way (increasing array of alternative energy sources).
- Australia increases its efforts at mitigation, but lag behind, we opt to essentially buy mitigation services from other countries.
- We still experience the benefits of global mitigation, but concentrate more on adaptation than mitigation.
Storyline 4: Global Fix with Proactive Australia
- The world’s major greenhouse gas producers tackle mitigation relatively early, Australia joins with this group of leading nations.
- Australia concentrates on both mitigation and adaptation both in significant ways.
- Less need to adapt relative to some other storylines in which climate change continues to accelerate.